AMNA NAWAZ: Welcome to the "News Hour."

President Trump's trade wars are likely to# slow down economic growth across th.. significantly this year.

That is the projection# from the International Monetary Fund today,## estimating the U.S. economy will slow down by an# entire percentage point compared to last year,## growing by just 1.8 percent.

Global growth was# projected to slow by half of a percentage point.

GEOFF BENNETT: Tariffs and uncertainty are# rattling other important parts of the economy.## The dollar has continued its slide,# and investors are showing that they## have new worries about treasury bonds,# often some of the safest investments.

But the U.S. markets rebounded# substantially today.

That came## after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent# reportedly told investors that he believes## the trade war with China is unsustainable and# hopes tariffs on both sides could be eased.

The Dow gained back more than 1,000 points,## or 2.6 percent.

The Nasdaq jumped 2.7 percent.# And the S&P 500 also gained about 2.5 percent.

And, late today, President Trump suggested he was# open to easing up on the trade wars with China.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United# States: I'm not going to say, oh,## I'm going to play hardball with China.

I'm goi.. no.

We're going to be very nice.

They're going# to be very nice.

And we will see what happens.

But, ultimately, they have# to make a deal, because,## otherwise, they're not going to be# able to deal in the United States.

GEOFF BENNETT: To help us understand the# volatility in the markets, let's turn now## to longtime financial journalist# and CNBC contributor Ron Insana.

Ron, it's great to be able# to draw on your insights on## a day like today.

Thanks for being here.

RON INSANA, CNBC Contributor: I was hoping# to get some insights from you, Geoff.

(LAUGHTER) GEOFF BENNETT: We will see about that, friend.

RON INSANA: This is as much volatility# as I h.. GEOFF BENNETT: Well, let's talk about that,## because the treasury secretary reportedly# saying h.. president's trade war with China.

You# heard the president there himself.

What's your read on all that's happening?

And# what is this potentially setting the stage for?

RON INSANA: Well, they're most clearly and most# definitively listening to the financial markets,## as you both outlined at the top of the show.

I# mean, not only is global growth being downgraded.## U.S. growth is being downgraded, the IMF# actually behind private economists in doing that.

And then you have seen these ripples in# the Treasury market, the decline in the## dollar to a three-year low, the turmoil in# the stock market.

And financial instruments## are telling politicians, number one, moving# this fast without a plan is a very bad idea.

Some of the ideas themselves are bad, like# potentially firing Fed Chairman Jay Powell.## And also just engaging in an all-out# trade war is detrimental to growth,## if not devastating, should it become# a full-blown international event.

And so I think they're starting to# get the message, and particularly## the treasury secretary is probably trying to# talk the president off the ledge, as it were,## with respect to some of the more harsh comments# he's made about Jay Powell recently and also about## this intensifying trade war with China, which the# treasury secretary effectively called an embargo.

That's a big word to use in# an environment like this.

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, you mentioned the# markets.

And let's talk more about that,## because, before today's rally, The Wall# Street Journal noted that the Dow Jones## industrial average was headed for the# worst April since the Great Depression,## since 1932, because of a lack# of confidence by investors.

I mean, is this -- this period of volatility,## is this our new normal, at least for as long# as this tariff plan, this trade war lasts?

RON INSANA: Yes, I absolutely think volatility# is going to remain elevated, I mean, maybe not## to the extent that we saw in the last several# weeks, but I do think that, until we get clarity## around where these negotiations are going and what# the actual endgame is, what we want from each and## every one of our trading partners is clear, and# whether or not there are agreements to be had.

Remember, these often take months or years# to construct, and they're trying to do## multiple deals, as many as 70 deals, within# 90 days.

That's something that I would assume## is impossible.

Progress on this front would# be helpful to financial markets, to be sure.

But the issues around that, whether or not# we have a fully set of sustainable deals that## are long-term in nature, is really what the# market needs to calm down and start following## more traditional metrics like corporate# earnings, the direction of interest rates,## should lower rates be warranted, things like# that, that are germane to typical market behavior.

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, the# president, at least for today,## is easing up on China.

He's also# easing up apparently on the Fed chair,## Jay Powell.

Today he told reporters, he# said: "I have no intention of firing him."

Last week, he said -- quote -- "If I want him out,# he will be out of there real fast, believe me."

He's still voicing -- the president is still# voicing his desire for the Fed to cut rates.## Is the Fed strong enough to resist the# pressure?

Because not every institution,## not every American institution, as we have seen,## has been strong enough to resist the# pressure from the Trump administration.

RON INSANA: Yes, I think the Fed most# definitely is.

I think Jay Powell has## even said, both privately and maybe even publicly,## that he would spend every last nickel# that he has fighting to stay in his job.

And the Fed, as an institution, has been extremely# independent as an agency for quite some time.

And,## again, I think that the independence# of the Fed is critical to the safety## and soundness of U.S. assets, the# way foreigners view the stability## of the U.S. economy, the reliability# of the dollar or U.S. Treasury bonds.

All of those things are really important.

Now, the# Fed may still hear from Donald Trump, President## Trump, on an ongoing basis about lowering rates,# but the Fed will do what it does when it needs## to do it.

So I think this is going to be no# longer a test of wills.

I think Jay Powell now,## given that the president just said that today,# that he has no intention of firing Jay Powell,## which my colleague Eamon Javers at CNBC asked him# about, I think we're OK until his term expires.

Who he ultimately replaces him with is# an open question.

But I think the Fed,## now that the president has backed off,# will be able to withstand these pressures.

GEOFF BENNETT: And lastly, Ron, when the IMF,# the International Monetary Fund, slashes its## us and global economic forecasts, it says the# U.S. economy is expected to grow by about 1.8## percent -- that's down from its January estimate# of 2.7 percent -- put that in plain English.

What does that mean for the economy and# the prospects potentially of a recession?

RON INSANA: Well, the IMF appears to be# slightly more optimistic than most private## economists.

We have heard estimates that# there's as much as a 90 percent chance of## a recession if these tariffs remained# in place for a sustained period.

And so, personally, I think 1.8 percent# is a little bit optimistic if the tariff## negotiations go on for several more months.# We're already hearing that shipments of goods## from China have all but ceased and that ports# in Los Angeles and Long Beach, California,## have quieted down considerably# and not receiving a lot of goods.

And so these are long cycle types of phenomenon# that if indeed this were to persist for some time,## getting 1.8 percent growth would be a# victory, given that we grew about 2.5## percent last year.

My guess is that we're# going to grow under 1 percent this year## if this type of uncertainty persists, both# in terms of market behavior and ultimately## in terms of businesses' inability to plan# around the tariffs, whatever they might be.

This is -- as I said earlier, this is going# to take time to work out.

So the first two or## three-quarters of this year might be a little# bit weaker than even the IMF is suggesting.

GEOFF BENNETT: That is Ron Insana.

Ron, always a pleasure.

Thanks for being with us.

RON INSANA: Thanks for having me.